XRP Funding Rates Signal Repeat of 2025 Surge Pattern

TLDR

• XRP funding rates have remained negative since February 2026 despite a 27% price recovery.
• XRP dropped to $1.1 in early February before starting its recent rebound.
• The TOTAL3 index lost over $544 billion during the correction and later regained about $125 billion.
• Binance data shows the longest stretch of negative XRP funding rates in recent history.
• A similar funding pattern in April 2025 preceded a 126% rally to $3.6 in July 2025.

XRP derivatives data show a sustained divergence between price action and trader positioning. Funding metrics have stayed negative since February 2026 even as price recovered. Analysts say this setup mirrors conditions before the July 2025 rally to $3.6.

XRP Funding Rates Stay Negative as Price Climbs 27%

Market data shows XRP funding rates have remained below zero since early February 2026. During this period, XRP price has increased by about 27%. The token rebounded after falling to $1.1 earlier that month.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost highlighted the divergence in a recent commentary. He said, “Funding rates have stayed negative for an unusually long time.” He added that short positions continue to dominate despite rising prices.

The data tracks a 30-day average of perpetual futures funding rates. It shows traders continue to pay to maintain short exposure. However, spot price movement has moved in the opposite direction.

Darkfost pointed to Binance data to illustrate the trend. He said Binance shows the longest negative stretch in recent history. The funding rate has not crossed above zero since February.

He explained that such conditions reflect prevailing bearish sentiment. At the same time, price recovery suggests growing demand. This contrast forms the core of the current setup.

Market Recovery and TOTAL3 Index Rebound

The broader altcoin market faced heavy losses during early 2026. The TOTAL3 index dropped by more than $544 billion during the correction. This index excludes Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins.

However, capital has returned gradually since early February. The TOTAL3 index has gained about $125 billion during the rebound. This growth signals renewed activity across altcoins.

XRP followed a similar recovery path after its February decline. The token fell over 60% before stabilizing near $1.1. It then moved higher even as funding metrics stayed negative.

Darkfost compared the current pattern to April 2025 conditions. At that time, XRP price traded around $1.25 after a sharp drop. Funding rates turned negative and stayed there for weeks.

He said, “The same structure appeared before the 2025 rally.” Funding rates remained negative until June 2025. Price momentum strengthened before rates shifted positive.

The rally accelerated once sentiment shifted. XRP surged 126% and reached $3.6 in July 2025. Funding rates turned positive only after the uptrend had started.

Current data shows a similar divergence forming again. Funding rates remain negative despite ongoing price recovery. The TOTAL3 index continues to reflect gradual capital inflows.

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