Trump may have just destroyed his fractured MAGA coalition: political analyst

A political analyst argued on Monday that President Donald Trump’s Iran war may have caused irreparable harm to his MAGA coalition.

“There's so much we don't know about this deal,” political analyst SE Cupp said on CNN on Monday. “And just because Trump has blurted out 'it's done' — we don't know that yet. I will point out there's a really interesting thing happening over on the far right, the sort of MAGA alternative lane that Tucker Carlson and other folks are trying to create. Tucker Carlson was out on his podcast late last week saying that the Iran war is the worst thing any president has ever done.”

Cupp added, “Now, hyperbole or not, that's what he's putting out there. We know that Trump is the most important voice for MAGA. But if that becomes a thing amplified in the corners of MAGA that are upset with the Iran situation — well, that could have a big impact on 2026 and 2028.”

In contrast to Cupp’s theory that Trump could lose support in the long-term because of the Iran war, Salon commentator Chauncey DeVega argued in April that the MAGA coalition has a cult-like attachment to the president and for that reason will never abandon him.

"There is a repeated argument that has hardened into something of a mantra among some prominent voices — such as James Carville — who have taken to saying things like: 'Donald Trump promised no more foreign wars!' 'The attacks on Iran and Venezuela show that he is a hypocrite!' 'His MAGA followers must be ashamed!' 'The GOP is going to lose big because of this,'" DeVega wrote. "This reasoning assumes a healthy, functioning democracy where politicians earn trust and legitimacy, and then are held accountable for betraying it. But Trumpism is an authoritarian personality cult."

DeVega added, "The president has total contempt for democracy and accountability, but his MAGA people and other supporters are psychologically adhered to him and the movement. He is a core part of their identity, which means they will change their beliefs and twist reality to justify his behavior and resolve the cognitive dissonance…. What many centrists, institutionalists and other such voices still struggle to understand is that in fascism and other antidemocratic political projects, power justifies itself. MAGA — and the larger conservative movement — is a form of religious politics driven by faith and will as opposed to reason or principle."

Former Rep. Joe Walsh (R-IL), who supported Trump during the 2016 presidential election, made a similar argument in February.

“I thought you wanted him to end wars all over the world,” Walsh wrote regarding Trump’s belligerent policies toward Greenland, Venezuela and Iran. “You said you wanted him to end American entanglement in conflicts and wars around the world. America shouldn’t be involved in these wars, you said. That’s why you’re voting for Trump, you said.”

He added, “And you don’t like when people call you a cult, Trump voters? What else are people to think when you voted for Trump to get us the hell out of wars around the world, and instead he gets us involved in wars around the world and starts new wars, and you still sing his praises and support him? What are we to think, MAGA, but that you are a cult?”

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