Galaxy Research Lowers CLARITY Act Passage Odds to 50% as Senate Calendar Tightens

Galaxy Research has lowered its estimate for the probability that the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act will become law in 2026 from 60% to 50%, citing an increasingly crowded Senate calendar and the absence of visible legislative progress. The firm’s latest assessment suggests the bill still has a viable path forward, but procedural constraints are becoming a greater obstacle than policy disagreements.

The revised forecast comes just weeks after Galaxy reduced its estimate from 75% to 60%. While the legislation continues to enjoy bipartisan interest and remains on the Senate Legislative Calendar following approval by the Senate Banking Committee, researchers say the amount of available floor time before Congress begins its scheduled late-July recess has continued to shrink.

Senate schedule becomes the primary challenge

Galaxy’s latest analysis argues that the biggest risk facing the CLARITY Act is no longer its policy content but the Senate’s legislative calendar.

The bill still requires several procedural steps before it can become law, including:

• Completion of a unified version between the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees.
• A motion to proceed on the Senate floor.
• Debate and consideration of amendments.
• Senate passage followed by House approval of any revised text.

With lawmakers expected to leave Washington at the end of July, analysts believe those steps leave little room for additional delays. If Senate leadership does not schedule floor consideration in the coming weeks, the legislation could slip into September, when lawmakers will increasingly focus on the 2026 midterm elections.

Other legislative priorities continue to crowd the agenda

The report points to growing competition for Senate floor time from several high-priority issues already awaiting action.

Among the measures expected to dominate the chamber’s schedule are:

• The FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).
• Legislation addressing the expired Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA).
• Debate surrounding the SAVE Act after President Donald Trump linked it to a separate housing bill.

According to Galaxy, each additional legislative priority reduces the opportunity for Senate leaders to allocate multiple days to the CLARITY crypto bill, a complex bipartisan crypto market structure proposal.

Negotiations continue behind the scenes

Although the outlook has become more cautious, Galaxy says there is little evidence that negotiations have broken down. Staff from the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees continue working toward a consolidated version of the legislation, but no unified draft has been released publicly.

Several policy questions also remain unresolved, including ethics provisions sought by Democratic senators and language surrounding developer protections contained in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA). Those issues are viewed as important because Senate leaders will likely need bipartisan support to reach the 60-vote threshold required to advance the legislation.

Galaxy noted that constructive discussions may still be taking place privately, but without a scheduled floor vote or publicly released compromise, it believes the legislative timeline continues to tighten.

What could improve the outlook?

Galaxy says several developments could increase the bill’s chances over the coming weeks.

Key factors include:

• Publication of a merged Banking and Agriculture committee text.
• Resolution of ethics-related negotiations.
• Agreement on remaining BRCA provisions.
• A formal commitment from Senate leadership to hold a floor vote during July.

If those milestones are achieved, the firm believes its probability estimate could rise again. However, continued delays beyond early July would make passage before the summer recess increasingly difficult and could push consideration into the fall, when election-year politics traditionally reduce opportunities for major bipartisan legislation.

Despite lowering its forecast to 50%, Galaxy maintains that the CLARITY Act remains one of the most advanced digital asset regulatory proposals currently before Congress. The coming weeks are expected to determine whether lawmakers can translate bipartisan committee support into floor action before the legislative calendar closes.

FAQs

1. Why did Galaxy Research reduce the CLARITY Act’s passage odds?
Galaxy said the downgrade reflects Senate scheduling challenges and procedural delays rather than declining bipartisan support for the legislation.

2. What is Galaxy Research’s latest estimate?
The firm now assigns a 50% probability that the CLARITY Act will become law in 2026, down from 60% earlier this month.

3. What issues remain unresolved?
Negotiators are still working on a unified committee draft, ethics provisions, and language related to developer protections under the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.

4. What could improve the bill’s chances?
A merged legislative text, resolution of outstanding negotiations, and a Senate floor vote scheduled during July would improve the outlook for passage.