ETH-BTC Pair Continues to Fall: Analyst Warns of 40 Percent Risk

In the cryptocurrency market, Ethereum’s weak performance against Bitcoin continues to attract attention.

Analysts note that the ETH/BTC pair has fallen by more than 35% in the past year, and warn that if the current downtrend continues, the pair could experience a further loss of up to 40%.

According to analyst Yashu Gola, the ETH/BTC chart is recreating the bearish pattern of 2024-2025. Technically, the pair is being pressured below the downtrend line that has been in place since 2022, and although this level has been tested several times, it has not been permanently breached. It was noted that one of these failed breakout attempts resulted in a sharp drop of approximately 70% in the pair.

According to the analysis, the ETH/BTC pair retested the trend line in August 2025 but encountered strong resistance. Subsequently, the pair retreated below the 20-month exponential moving average (EMA) at approximately 0.034, indicating that it remains under bearish control. If the downtrend continues, the next significant target is the 0.0176 level, corresponding to the 2020 cycle lows, which would represent an additional 40% drop from current levels.

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On-chain data also indicates increasing selling pressure on Ethereum. According to CryptoQuant data, as of May, ETH reserves on Binance rose to 3.62 million units. This amount represents approximately 24.6% of total ETH reserves across all exchanges. It was also noted that Bitcoin reserves on Binance continued to decline during the same period.

Market experts believe that an increase in reserves on exchanges generally indicates a rise in the amount of tokens available for sale, while a decrease in reserves strengthens the tendency for long-term holdings. This situation is said to further highlight the fundamental divergence between ETH and BTC.

Analysts also note that Ethereum’s once prominent “sound money” narrative is beginning to lose its influence, while Bitcoin continues to receive support from institutional companies, particularly Strategy, and Wall Street-based investments.

*This is not investment advice.

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