Expedia Stock Jumped 7% This Week. Here’s Where the Stock Could Go

Key Stats for Expedia Stock

• Current Price: $262.15 
• Target Price (Mid): ~$480
• Street Target: ~$286
• Potential Total Return: ~83%
• Annualized IRR: ~14% / year
• Earnings Reaction: (9.02%) (May 7, 2026)
• Max Drawdown: (37.44%) (February 23, 2026)

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What Happened?

Expedia Group (EXPE) closed up 6.97% on June 24, and almost none of it was about Expedia. The stock rode a sector-wide rally as oil prices fell on U.S.-Iran negotiation progress, easing fuel-cost fears across travel. Booking Holdings and Royal Caribbean moved with it. When a 7% pop is borrowed from the oil tape, the better question is what the stock looks like once the noise clears.

It looks cheap. Expedia trades at roughly 7.8x NTM EV/EBITDA, or enterprise value to next-twelve-months earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Booking sits at 12.9x and Airbnb at 15.1x. That gap has held through four straight quarters of estimate beats. Bulls see a mispriced compounder. Bears see a business the market won’t re-rate for a reason.

Why the discount won’t close on its own

Expedia has delivered. First-quarter 2026 revenue grew 15% to $3.43 billion, adjusted EBITDA jumped to $542 million, and B2B, the business of selling travel inventory and technology to airlines, banks, and corporate travel managers, again led. CEO Ariane Gorin called it the highest first-quarter profitability in company history. Yet the stock fell 9% on May 7 after the print, because Q2 revenue guidance came in soft. The pattern is consistent: good results, skeptical tape.

The discount has a name, and it is artificial intelligence. The market fears agentic commerce, where AI assistants book travel directly, will disintermediate online travel agencies. Gorin addressed it at the Evercore Global TMT Conference on June 2, arguing that AI traffic is still tiny and behaves differently than feared. Agents, she said, are “coming in and doing a bunch of discovery, but not going to the transaction.” That reframes AI as a demand source, not a threat to the booking Expedia monetizes.

Her deeper point was that booking is hard to take. “Booking and servicing is complicated,” she told Evercore, citing the constantly updated rates, availability, and support an AI layer would have to replicate. Her bet is that model providers would rather “leave kind of the tough work of the booking and the like to us.”

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What the moat actually is

There have been only two scaled OTAs for two decades, which tells you the business is easy to enter and brutal to scale. Gorin’s framing of Expedia’s edge is its diversified demand: three consumer brands feeding a B2B engine that has grown double digits for 18 straight quarters. The more demand Expedia routes through partners like Uber, the more value it brings to hotels, which improves supply and pricing, which feeds the consumer brands. She called the 70,000-plus B2B partners “an asset that I don’t think is sufficiently appreciated.”

The deal flow backs it. In May, Expedia agreed to acquire CarTrawler, an Irish B2B mobility platform with more than 550 car rental and 500 mobility suppliers, set to close in the second half of 2026. It deepens the non-lodging B2B runway Gorin is targeting.

At 7.8x EBITDA against Booking’s 12.9x, Expedia is priced as if margin expansion simply stops. The 2025 results argue otherwise: EBITDA grew 19.3%, and Gorin said margins expanded 240 basis points that year. Booking still earns its richer multiple on years of better marketing efficiency, a gap Expedia is narrowing but hasn’t closed.

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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis

• Current Price: $262.15
• Target Price (Mid): ~$480
• Potential Total Return: ~83%
• Annualized IRR: ~14% / year

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Using the TIKR Valuation Model mid-case, realized at the end of 2030, Expedia is worth around $480 per share, a fair value implying roughly 83% total return and a CAGR near 14% per year over four and a half years. The model runs on around 6% annual revenue growth, carried by B2B and international expansion, and a net income margin widening toward 18% on consumer marketing leverage. The primary risk is the AI demand funnel: if agentic booking matures faster than Gorin expects, the multiple stays will be compressed.

The upside is a business compounding earnings at a double-digit rate while the market pays a single-digit EBITDA multiple. The downside is that the AI discount proves rational, and the stock stays cheap because it deserves to.

Conclusion

Watch the B2C adjusted EBITDA margin on the Q2 2026 call, expected in early August. Management guided a full-year expansion of 100 to 125 basis points, down from 240 in 2025. At or above guide confirms the efficiency story is structural and gives the Street a reason to close the gap to peers. A miss validates the discount. The oil rally told you nothing about that. The August print will tell you everything.

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Should You Invest in Expedia?

The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.

Pull up Expedia, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.

You can build a free watchlist to track Expedia alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!