Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Pulls Back 9% in a Month — Is Now the Time to Buy?

TLDR

• NVDA stock is down nearly 9% over the past month and has gained only 5% year-to-date, trading around $192.53
• The stock now trades at roughly 22x forward earnings, down from nearly 40x last July
• Generate Investment Management increased its NVDA stake by 62.5% in Q1, making it its largest holding at ~11.9% of portfolio
• Wall Street holds a consensus Buy rating with an average price target of $303.84
• NVDA posted Q1 EPS of $1.87, beating estimates of $1.76, with revenue up 85.2% year-over-year to $81.61 billion

Nvidia stock opened Friday at $192.53, continuing a rough stretch that has seen the chip giant shed nearly 9% over the past month. Year-to-date, NVDA is up just 5% — a far cry from the blistering gains investors became used to in prior years.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

The forward earnings multiple has compressed too. NVDA now trades at around 22x forward earnings. That compares to nearly 40x back in late July last year. On paper, that looks like a discount. But whether it actually is one depends on how you read the broader picture.

One thing working in the bull case: institutional money isn’t running away. Generate Investment Management increased its NVDA position by 62.5% in Q1, adding over 533,000 shares to bring its total to nearly 1.39 million. The stake is now worth around $241.7 million and represents 11.9% of its portfolio — its single largest holding.

Other big names added too. Norges Bank picked up a new stake worth roughly $62.2 billion. J. Stern & Co. grew its position by over 13,700%. Cardano Risk Management boosted its holding by 896%. Institutional investors now own 65.27% of the company.

What the Numbers Say

Nvidia’s most recent quarter was strong by any measure. The company reported Q1 EPS of $1.87, beating the $1.76 consensus estimate. Revenue came in at $81.61 billion, ahead of the $78.42 billion expected, and up 85.2% compared to the same quarter last year.

The board also approved an $80 billion share buyback and raised its quarterly dividend to $0.25 — up from $0.01 previously. That’s a significant shift in capital return strategy.

Wall Street remains broadly positive. Jefferies raised its price target to $300. CICC lifted its target to $268.30. The consensus across 54 analysts sits at a Buy, with an average target of $303.84 — well above Friday’s opening price.

Where the Caution Comes In

Not everything points upward. The multiple compression tells a story beyond just “it’s cheaper now.” Hardware companies are cyclical, and margins can erode as competition picks up. Alternative chip makers and in-house AI silicon from major cloud providers are increasingly entering the space.

There’s also insider activity worth noting. Director Mark Stevens sold 885,000 shares on June 18 at an average price of $210.17, totaling around $186 million. That’s a 14.53% reduction in his position. Director John Dabiri sold 625 shares in late May at $214.

Insiders have sold over 1.9 million shares worth roughly $410.6 million in the past three months. That doesn’t automatically signal trouble, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

One technical model suggests NVDA could trade between $190 and $225 over the next 10 weeks from current levels, with a five-week median target around $213. The stock has posted only four up weeks in its last 10.

NVDA has a 52-week range of $151.49 to $236.54, a market cap of $4.66 trillion, and a 200-day moving average of $193.00 — right around where it sits now.

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