Intuit Is Down 67% From Its Peak While Raising Guidance. Here’s the Tension.

Key Stats for Intuit Stock

• 52-Week Range: $252.84 to $813.70
• Current Price: $267.72
• Street Mean Target: $486.61
• Market Cap: ~$73.2B
• LTM Gross Margin: 80.8%
• LTM EBIT Margin: 27.5%
• Forward 2-Yr Revenue CAGR: ~13%
• NTM P/E: ~10x
• Dividend Yield: 1.9%

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Revenue Has Grown Every Year for a Decade. The Market Doesn’t Care Right Now.

Intuit (INTU) is one of the most consistent financial software businesses ever built. Revenue grew from $9.6 billion in fiscal 2021 to $18.8 billion in fiscal 2025, a near-doubling in four years without a single down year.

Full-year guidance for fiscal 2026 was just raised to around $21.4 billion, implying 13-14% growth. Consensus estimates project continued compounding toward roughly $32.8 billion by fiscal 2030.

[INTU Revenue chart]

The operating performance has matched the revenue trajectory. Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue came in at $8.56 billion, up 10% year over year. Non-GAAP EPS grew 10% to $12.80. Global Business Solutions Online Ecosystem revenue, which covers QuickBooks and related products, grew 19%.

Credit Karma revenue grew 15%, driven by strength in personal loans and auto insurance. The company serves approximately 100 million customers worldwide across TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp.

Yet the stock is down 67% from its 52-week high of $813.70, near its lowest point of the year. That disconnect is not the result of a deteriorating business. It is the result of a market that has fundamentally repriced what Intuit’s earnings might be worth five years from now.

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The TurboTax Problem Is Real, Even If the Numbers Look Fine Today

The catalyst for the selloff is straightforward. CEO Sasan Goodarzi said plainly on the Q3 earnings call that Intuit “lost on price” in the do-it-yourself segment, specifically among lower-income filers earning under $50,000. TurboTax revenue grew 7% for the quarter, but the company trimmed its full-year TurboTax outlook modestly. More importantly, the structural question behind that miss is what spooked investors.

Goldman Sachs analyst Gabriela Borges downgraded Intuit to Sell, noting that new AI-powered tax-filing tools from competitors, including Prime Meridian, Perplexity Tax, and Chime Tax, are moving beyond viral buzz into credible, scalable products.

Borges estimated that AI models can now process a standard individual tax return for around $0.12, compared to the up to $162 that users pay for TurboTax. In a base case in which 20% of U.S. tax filers shift to fully AI-based preparation by 2030, Goldman projects that TurboTax revenue could be roughly 18% below fiscal 2025 levels. Yahoo FinanceStockAnalysis

Intuit’s response is to lean further into TurboTax Live, its assisted-filing product where a human expert reviews and signs off on the return. TurboTax Live is expected to grow around 36% this fiscal year and account for roughly 53% of total TurboTax revenue.

The logic is that AI tools cannot easily replicate the trust and liability that come with a credentialed professional reviewing a complex return. Whether that holds as AI capabilities improve is the central question.

[INTU EPS Normalized chart]

EPS has compounded from $9.74 in fiscal 2021 to $20.15 in fiscal 2025, and the consensus path projects continued growth toward roughly $37 by fiscal 2030. At the current price of $267.72 against the fiscal 2026 estimated EPS of around $24, the stock trades at roughly 11x forward earnings.

That is one of the cheapest multiples in Intuit’s history relative to its growth rate, and it reflects a market that is discounting a meaningful portion of those forward estimates as uncertain.

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The Model Sees 66% Upside. Here’s What It Requires.

TIKR’s valuation model targets around $444 for Intuit in the mid case, implying a total return of about 66% over roughly four years, or about 13% annualized. The mid case assumes around 10% annual revenue growth, net income margins expanding to roughly 32%, and EPS compounding at around 11% per year.

The high case reaches around $822, implying roughly 15% annualized returns. That scenario requires revenue growth closer to 11% and margins approaching 34%, which would demand that TurboTax Live continue to scale, QuickBooks Enterprise Suite keep gaining mid-market share, and the AI competitive threat remain manageable.

[INTU Valuation Model]

The restructuring announced alongside Q3 results adds another dimension. The 17% workforce reduction affecting roughly 3,000 employees is intended to simplify the organization and eliminate management layers created by prior integrations, with CFO Sandeep Aujla confirming that most savings flow to the bottom line rather than being reinvested.

The company also issued $1.75 billion in senior notes in June, and the board authorized an $8 billion share repurchase program. At current prices, that buyback represents roughly 11% of the market cap.

Should You Invest in Intuit Inc.?

Intuit’s platform is durable, the cash generation is exceptional, and the valuation is lower than it has been in years. The TurboTax AI threat is real but unproven at scale, and the company’s pivot toward assisted filing is a credible response.

The honest risk is that the market is right to reprice: if AI tools continue to improve and price-sensitive filers keep migrating away, the long-term earnings trajectory looks different from the last decade. Investors who believe TurboTax Live and the QuickBooks ecosystem can sustain double-digit growth will find the current price genuinely attractive.

Those waiting for more evidence on the AI competition front may prefer to watch from the sidelines a while longer.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!