Martin Armstrong Says Gold's 30% Correction May Be Nearly Complete—Here's Why

Gold is below $4,000 per ounce, which has started discussions on whether the bull market has ended. However, economist Martin Armstrong believes otherwise. On June 24, the spot gold price fell to a low of $3,973.79, which was the first time gold was below the $4,000 level since November 2025.

Gold remained under pressure for the next day, with prices around $3,982.49. From its January high near $5,595, the metal has now fallen by more than 28%, putting it close to the 30% correction Armstrong's computer models had projected.

Armstrong believes this is part of a normal market cycle. His view is that major corrections often shake out investors who bought near the top before the market finds its footing again.

The gold chart still points to a bearish trend

We had a look at the daily Gold chart, and the broader trend has not changed yet. The gold price is trading around $4,040.82, leaving it about 32.7% below the peak near $6,000 shown on the chart. 

Daily Gold chart analysis

The decline has unfolded in stages. Gold traded near $5,600 in December, dropped to $5,200 in January, moved down to $4,800 in February, then continued sliding through $4,600 and $4,400 before reaching today's levels.

The 100-day simple moving average is at $4,674.19. That puts the gold price roughly 13.5% below the moving average, and the average itself is still moving lower. As long as price stays beneath that level, sellers remain in control of the bigger picture.

Momentum is showing early signs of improvement

The price action remains weak, but one technical indicator is beginning to improve. The daily Relative Strength Index has climbed to 35.35. That remains below the neutral reading of 50, though it is close to the oversold threshold at 30. 

More importantly, RSI has been forming higher lows even as the gold price continued making lower lows. Many traders pay attention to this setup because it often appears before a market begins stabilizing. It does not confirm that a reversal has started, though it does show that selling pressure is becoming less aggressive.

The chart also draws our attention to $4,024 as the first support zone. In case of defending this region by buyers, the next higher targets include $4,200, and then $4,416.97 as the 1.618 Fibonacci level. The 100-day moving average at $4,674 will continue as the key resistance zone.

In case of declining below the $4,024 level, we need to consider $3,900, while the 2.272 Fibonacci extension will come at $3,522.66 becoming the next major support area.

What happens next for the gold price?

Armstrong's comments line up with what the chart is showing. This has been a correction, but strong corrections come after strong rallies. Right now, the gold price is below all key resistance levels, and therefore, the overall bias is in favor of the bears.

It is also important to note that the bulls divergence on the RSI indicates a reduction in bearish momentum. The next few trading sessions should be important. Holding above $4,024 would give buyers an opportunity to challenge resistance near $4,200 and $4,416. A break below support would increase the chances of another move toward $3,900.

According to CoinCodex's 1-month gold price prediction, the price could decline toward $3,708.68, pointing to further downside from current levels if sellers push the metal below the $4,024 support zone and maintain control beneath the 100-day moving average near $4,674.