XRP Chart Update: Price Will Drop Below $1 If This Happens

Crypto analyst ChartNerd (@ChartNerd) believes XRP is on track for another important test after continuing to respect a long-term falling wedge pattern.

In a recent post, he said the asset’s price has now confirmed its move back toward a multi-year ascending support trendline for a third retest.

He wrote, “Price is still respecting the falling wedge and has now confirmed the journey back towards the multi-year ascending support trendline for a 3rd retest.” He added that the focus should remain on the area where previous long-term buying opportunities developed rather than identifying the exact bottom.

XRP’s Repeating Structure

The chart highlights major retests of the ascending support line, where XRP experienced notable rallies before extended consolidation periods within falling wedges.

The first appeared around 2014, followed by another in 2016, and the third retest in 2017. This pushed XRP up by 680x to a new all-time high. The latest pattern places XRP on course for a third visit to the new support trendline.

XRP also experienced brief advances while forming the setup. The initial structure saw XRP rise by 17x, 6.6x, and 1.3x before the explosive breakout in 2017. It began a new structure in 2018, with the first rally pushing it up by 10x. Following the first retest, XRP rose by 2.3x, and the second retest triggered the explosive breakout of late 2024, which saw XRP rise by 6.9x.

Sub-$1 Area Remains in Play

ChartNerd stressed that his analysis centers on identifying favorable zones rather than calling the exact bottom. He also outlined a scenario in which XRP briefly trades below $1 before continuing the long-term structure.

He said a move below $1 would align with his earlier price targets of $0.90 and $0.70 on the Gaussian. He described that scenario as “further macro opportunity.”  His chart places the expected third retest near the long-term support trendline before projecting another advance.

Reversal Still Awaits Confirmation

ChartNerd also responded to a community member who said XRP would not move lower. He noted that ” very few mapped the drop to $1” before adding that he still sees no confirmation of a reversal and considers the current move “a relief rally until otherwise.”

That response matches the chart, which continues to monitor the falling wedge and the long-term ascending support trendline. For now, ChartNerd remains focused on the repeating structure that has appeared several times during XRP’s history while awaiting confirmation of the next trend. He closed his post by writing, “Conviction got us this far already; we don’t stop now!”

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