Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Why Traders Are Waiting Before Calling the Next BTC Rally

TLDR

• Bitcoin held above $80,000 over the weekend, reaching a high of $82,436 before pulling back slightly
• Traders expect a short-term dip to retest the bull market support band just below $80K before any move higher
• US CPI data for April is due Tuesday, with one trader noting BTC may see “de-risking” ahead of the event
• Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) completed its first month with zero net outflow days and $193.6M in cumulative inflows
• MSBT has the lowest fee of any US spot Bitcoin ETF at 0.14%, and its advisor distribution channel has not yet fully opened

Bitcoin is trading above $80,750 as of Sunday, holding a key level after a weekend that saw little volatility. The price hit a high of $82,436 earlier in the week before pulling back into consolidation.

Traders are broadly expecting a short-term dip before the next leg higher. The focus is on the bull market support band — a zone defined by two moving averages sitting just below $80,000.

Analytics account Cryptic Trades posted on X that a pullback toward that support band is the most likely short-term outcome. The account added that as long as price holds above the band and the broader support around $75,000 — which aligns with the April 2025 low — the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

Trader Daan Crypto Trades described the initial move above the support band as “not a clean break.” He said he wants to see price clear the low $80K range and hold there for one to two weeks before drawing any conclusions.

Analyst Ted Pillows weighed in on X, noting that BTC is still holding above $80,000 and that a reclaim of $81,500 could push the price toward $84,000. His view aligns with the broader trader consensus that upside is possible if key levels hold.

CPI Data in Focus

April CPI data is due Tuesday and could affect short-term price action. Trader Killa noted on X that BTC has rallied after the last two CPI releases. However, he flagged the possibility that larger players could start de-risking ahead of the data, citing 2025 CPI price action as a reference.

Killa identified $74,000 as a level to watch if the bull market support band fails, and said he would look for liquidity sweeps around that pivot to gauge the next move.

Key resistance sits at $82,000 and $82,450. A confirmed close above $82,450 could open the door to $83,200 and then $84,000. On the downside, $80,400 is the first major support, followed by $79,250 and $78,500.

Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF Posts Zero Outflow Days

Away from price action, Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin Trust (MSBT) wrapped up its first month of trading with no net outflow days — a record no other spot Bitcoin ETF matched over the same period.

MSBT launched on April 8 and pulled in $193.6 million in cumulative net inflows through May 7. On days when rivals like Fidelity’s FBTC lost $97.6 million and BlackRock’s IBIT shed $27.2 million, MSBT still posted positive inflows.

The fund carries the lowest annual fee of any US spot Bitcoin ETF at 0.14%, undercutting BlackRock and Fidelity’s 0.25%. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas placed MSBT’s launch in the top 1% of all ETF debuts.

Nearly all early inflows came from self-directed clients. Morgan Stanley’s 16,000 financial advisors, who manage over $9.3 trillion in assets, have not yet had full access to the fund through the advisory platform.

Bitcoin was trading near $80,840 at the time of publication.

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