Senior Analyst Benjamin Cowen Warns Against a “False Rally” in Bitcoin

Benjamin Cowen, a leading analyst in the cryptocurrency market, assessed Bitcoin’s current state and the psychology of the bear market in his new analysis. Speaking through historical data and cycles, Cowen warned investors against misleading price increases.

Cowen, commenting at a time when Bitcoin was trading just above the $78,000 level, argued that bear markets are extremely difficult to manage psychologically.

The analyst stated, “Bear markets always fool both bulls and bears,” adding that the temporary and misleading rallies seen during these periods are inherent to the market.

Cowen countered the prevailing market sentiment of “This time it’s different, we’ve never seen a bear market rise for this long,” by citing examples from past cycles. He reminded viewers that in the bear markets of 2014, 2018, and 2022, it took between 15 and 25 weeks to reach a new low, whereas only 14 weeks have passed in the current situation.

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Cowen stated that June has historically always been a significant turning point (bottom or local peak) for Bitcoin, and predicted that the main market direction could shift further downwards towards October or the fourth quarter of the year.

The analyst noted that Bitcoin is currently struggling to overcome the 200-day moving average, a critical threshold it finds difficult to surpass in bear markets, and that even potential rises to $85,000 based on historical resistance levels would not break the main downtrend.

Referring to Bitcoin’s performance against other assets, Cowen said, “Bitcoin advocates may be mocking gold, but Bitcoin has lost 58% of its value against gold since December 2024.”

He claimed that gold would continue its rise towards the end of the year, while Bitcoin could lose another 45% of its value against gold.

Cowen noted that the current US midterm election year cycle bears similarities to 2018 and that a potential second macroeconomic pullback in the S&P 500 index could trigger a new wave of decline in Bitcoin. He added that, according to fair value realized price and balanced price patterns, it would not be surprising if Bitcoin fell to the $40,000 level.

*This is not investment advice.

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