Walmart (WMT) Stock: What Analysts Expect from Q1 Earnings Thursday

TLDR

• Walmart reports Q1 FY27 earnings on May 21, with analysts expecting EPS of $0.66 and revenue of ~$174.8B
• 28 of 30 analysts rate WMT a Buy; price targets range from $132 to $150
• Piper Sandler raised its target to $137, Bernstein to $145, UBS holds at $147
• U.S. same-store sales growth of 3.9%–4.5% is expected, driven by e-commerce and grocery
• Consumer confidence hit its lowest level since 1952, and rising gas prices remain a risk

Walmart stock is up nearly 18% this year, sitting at around $131 as of May 17. The retail giant heads into Thursday’s earnings report with strong analyst backing and a few real headwinds to watch.

Walmart Inc., WMT

Wall Street is broadly bullish. Of 30 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it a Buy. The average price target sits at roughly $136.45, which implies modest upside from current levels. Piper Sandler’s Peter Keith lifted his target to $137 from $130, keeping an Overweight rating. He noted that consumer spending has held up despite higher gas prices, though tax refunds didn’t spark much of a retail boost — many households appeared to save the cash rather than spend it.

Bernstein’s Zhihan Ma raised his target to $145 from $134. He flagged that retailers serving higher-income shoppers could benefit from the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” but warned that fuel costs, inflation, and reduced government support payments could still weigh on spending broadly.

UBS analyst Michael Lasser kept his Buy rating with a $147 target. He expects U.S. comparable sales growth of around 4.5%, powered by more than 25% growth in e-commerce. He flagged softer demand in health and wellness as a potential drag, but still sees Walmart’s U.S. business delivering solid profit growth near the top end of its own guidance range.

What the Numbers Look Like

Consensus estimates put Q1 EPS at $0.66, up about 8% year-over-year. Revenue is expected to come in around $174.8B, up over 6%. That compares to Q4 FY2025, when Walmart posted revenue of $190.7B and EPS of $0.74 — both ahead of expectations — though net profit fell roughly 19% due to a one-time impairment tied to the Vizio integration and higher logistics costs.

This quarter, the market will be watching same-store sales closely. U.S. comparable sales growth in the 3.9%–4.5% range is expected, driven by grocery demand and higher-income consumers trading down. Groceries make up about two-thirds of Walmart’s U.S. revenue, which gives it a defensive quality when discretionary spending softens.

Investors will also be tuned in to new CEO John Furner’s commentary. He took the helm on February 1 and this will be his first full quarter in the chair. Analysts expect a practical tone focused on market share and a realistic read on second-half consumption trends.

Advertising and Membership in Focus

Walmart’s advertising and membership businesses have become a growing part of the story. Global ad revenue grew 37% in Q4, with Walmart Connect up 41%. Walmart+ membership revenue rose 15.1%. Operating margins for these segments run above 70%, far outpacing traditional retail.

The market wants to see global ad growth hold above 30% this quarter. If it does, it helps offset any squeeze on discretionary sales.

Barclays reiterated a Buy at $132. BofA kept its Buy with a $150 target, citing resilient core customers and the expectation that macro volatility will push more shoppers toward discount retailers. Wolfe Research lifted its target from $135 to $137.

Walmart’s current P/E ratio of around 48x sits well above its five-year average of 36x.

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