Bitcoin falls below $77,000 amid oil shock, rising yields

Bitcoin slipped under $77,000 on Monday in Asia as higher oil prices and climbing Treasury yields weighed on risk assets. The move comes as macro conditions look less friendly for crypto, with prediction market traders seeing little chance of near-term Fed relief.

The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.13%, its highest close since 2007, while Polymarket traders put the odds of no Fed move at 98% in June and 94% in July. The 10- and two-year yields also extended last week’s rise, hitting 12-month highs.

This matters for bitcoin because higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. When inflation concerns drive yields up, speculative assets like BTC often struggle.

On-chain data shows mixed signals

Data from Binance Research paints a more complicated picture. Glassnode numbers cited by the firm show nearly 60% of the bitcoin supply hasn’t moved in over a year. Exchange balances are at a six-year low, which can limit immediate selling pressure.

But there’s a flip side. Binance Research flagged short-term holder MVRV, or market value to realized value, which measures whether recent buyers are in profit or loss. The reading is below 1, meaning newer buyers are underwater on average. That makes the market more sensitive to further declines, since investors sitting on losses have less room to absorb another macro-driven selloff.

Key catalysts this week

Presto Research noted traders are watching several events this week: Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, U.S. PPI on Thursday, and progress on the CLARITY Act, a market structure bill moving through Washington.

Nvidia has become a broader risk gauge because of its role in the AI trade. PPI will give markets another read on whether inflation pressure is spreading beyond energy.

For crypto, the near-term question is whether bitcoin can stabilize while rates stay elevated. Low exchange balances and inactive older supply can limit obvious spot-selling pressure, but they don’t prevent sharp moves when macro traders cut risk or when recent buyers fall deeper into losses.

Bitcoin is caught between two forces: on-chain data showing long-term holders staying largely inactive, and a rates market giving investors fewer reasons to add exposure before the next inflation print.

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