Tesla (TSLA) Stock Is Up — But It Has Nothing to Do With EVs

TLDR

• Tesla stock rose 1.5% to $412.42 Monday after President Trump announced a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, boosting broader market sentiment.
• Crude oil prices dropped 5% to around $83 per barrel following the deal, which includes a ceasefire, easing of Iran sanctions, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Tesla’s most recent quarterly earnings beat EPS estimates ($0.41 vs. $0.39 forecast), though revenue of $22.39 billion came in slightly below the $22.96 billion consensus.
• Investor focus remains on Tesla’s AI, robotaxi, and humanoid robot ambitions rather than EV sales, which fell 23% year over year in April.
• Analysts hold a consensus “Hold” rating on TSLA with an average price target of $404.37; Wall Street projects EPS of around $7 by 2029.

Tesla (TSLA) stock opened the week on a positive note, climbing 1.5% to $412.42 on Monday morning as markets reacted to news of a U.S.-Iran peace deal.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

President Trump announced a memorandum of understanding to effectively end the conflict that started three months ago. The deal includes a ceasefire, easing of foreign sanctions on Iran, an end to the U.S. naval blockade, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s nuclear program will enter a 60-day negotiating window.

The S&P 500 futures were up 1.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 1% on the news.

Oil prices fell sharply on the announcement. International benchmark crude dropped 5% to around $83 per barrel, down from highs above $115 per barrel in April.

Lower oil prices historically reduce the appeal of EVs relative to gas-powered cars. But the Iran conflict didn’t do much to drive U.S. EV sales anyway — new EV sales actually dropped 23% year over year in April. The bigger drag on the industry has been the removal of the $7,500 federal purchase tax credit last September.

Used EV sales did show some strength, rising 17% year over year, though Tesla doesn’t meaningfully benefit from that market.

Investor Focus on AI, Not Cars

Wall Street isn’t really watching EV sales numbers right now. The Tesla bull case is built around autonomy, humanoid robotics, and AI — and that narrative has been holding up.

Tesla launched its robotaxi service about a year ago in Austin, Texas. The service has since expanded to four cities.

On the robotics front, Tesla recently halted production of the Model S and Model X at its Fremont, California, facility to convert capacity toward mass-producing its humanoid robot. It also stopped making the Model Y to focus on that same push.

Tesla’s latest quarterly results came in ahead of EPS expectations. The company posted $0.41 per share versus the $0.39 forecast. Revenue came in at $22.39 billion, up 15.8% year over year, but slightly below the $22.96 billion analysts had expected.

Analyst Views and Institutional Activity

Tesla hasn’t grown annual EPS since 2022. Analysts forecast $1.19 EPS for the current year and see the stock topping its 2022 peak of around $4 per share by 2029 — with estimates close to $7.

The consensus analyst rating on TSLA sits at “Hold” with an average price target of $404.37. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 22 have a Buy rating, 17 Hold, and 5 Sell.

Insider Sales

Director Kathleen Wilson-Thompson sold 26,409 shares on April 30 at an average price of $378.11. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 3,000 shares on May 13 at $450.00, with the sale tied to tax withholding on vesting equity awards.

Insiders sold a combined 57,824 shares valued at roughly $21.6 million over the past 90 days.

TSLA opened at $406.43 Monday, with a 52-week range of $288.77 to $498.83 and a market cap of approximately $1.53 trillion.

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