Pre-Market Update: US-Iran Peace Deal Sends Stock Futures and Bitcoin Surging as Oil Prices Crash

TLDR

• US and Iran have agreed to an interim ceasefire deal, with a formal signing expected Friday in Switzerland
• Nasdaq 100 futures surged 2.2%, S&P 500 futures up 1.3%, Dow futures climbed 1%
• Oil prices dropped sharply, with Brent crude falling nearly 5% to around $83 a barrel
• Bitcoin climbed 2.2% to $65,810 as broader risk sentiment improved
• Fox announced a $22 billion deal to buy Roku, sending Fox shares down 10% pre-market

US stock futures jumped sharply on Monday morning after the United States and Iran agreed to an interim ceasefire deal over the weekend. The agreement is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for global oil shipping.

President Trump announced the deal late Sunday on Truth Social, calling it “complete.” A formal signing is scheduled for this Friday in Switzerland. Trump noted that time before the signing is needed for mine removal in the Strait of Hormuz.

The deal had been in the works for 107 days, according to Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid. “The fizz is staying in markets this morning,” Reid said, adding that the news was “very well received” even after a strong Friday close on Wall Street.

Nasdaq 100 futures led the gains, rising 2.2%. S&P 500 futures added 1.3% and Dow Jones futures climbed around 1%. All three major indexes had already closed higher on Friday as traders hoped for a deal.

Oil Prices Slide on Supply Hopes

Oil prices fell hard on the news. Brent crude dropped nearly 5% to around $83 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate fell over 5%, holding just above $80 a barrel. Traders are betting that a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will ease supply concerns that had pushed prices higher.

The Strait could reopen to oil tankers as soon as this week. However, analysts expect a full return to normal shipping flows to take months. Shipowners and operators remain cautious due to limited details about the agreement’s terms.

Bitcoin and Markets React

Bitcoin rose 2.2% over the past 24 hours to $65,810. The move reflects an improvement in broader risk appetite following the ceasefire news.

The US dollar slipped 0.2% against a basket of major currencies as demand for safe-haven assets eased. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dipped 5 basis points to 4.44%.

Gold gained as lower oil prices shifted investor focus. Japan’s Nikkei rose to a record high on the news.

Wall Street also enters the week with momentum from SpaceX’s public debut on Friday. Shares rose over 5% in premarket trading Monday, after surging more than 19% in their first session, pushing the company’s market value above $2 trillion.

In corporate news, Fox announced it will acquire Roku in a $22 billion deal. Fox shares fell around 10% before the bell. Roku shares edged up 1.4%, building on a 20% gain from Friday.

Fed Decision Ahead

All eyes now turn to the Federal Reserve, which is set to announce its rate decision on Wednesday. Traders are pricing in a 98% chance that rates stay unchanged, per CME FedWatch data.

Hot inflation readings have kept debate alive about a possible rate hike later this year. The Fed decision will be the key event for markets mid-week.

The NYSE and Nasdaq will both be closed on Friday for Juneteenth.

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