Iran war failed to spark Dubai property selloff, Sajwani says

Dubai property buyers spent months waiting for the Iran war to deliver a discount. It never came.

Despite a sharp slowdown in transactions during the conflict, sellers largely held firm on prices, according to Abbas Sajwani, the billionaire founder of luxury developer AHS Properties.

He said buyers had delayed rather than abandoned purchases, with activity likely to pick up from September.

“People were expecting to get a better price, but no one was getting a better price because of this situation,” he told AGBI.

“The conflict had a very small impact on deals. So here and there you get a one-off good deal, but in a broader market sellers are holding their prices.”

Sajwani – who also sits on the board of Damac Group, one of Dubai’s largest privately held developers – is the son of Hussain Sajwani, the company’s founder and a longtime business partner of US President Donald Trump. The elder Sajwani’s net worth exceeds $13 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

The comments offer an early read on Dubai’s property market after this month’s US-Iran memorandum of understanding.

The news eased fears of a prolonged regional conflict that disrupted shipping, weighed on tourism and raised questions about whether one of the world’s hottest real estate markets was due for a major crash.

The emirate has enjoyed a years-long boom driven by foreign buyers, wealthy migrants and long-term “golden visa” residency incentives, but is being closely watched after the war rattled investor sentiment across the Gulf. The question for investors is whether the crisis delayed transactions or marked the beginning of a broader slowdown.

September spike

Sajwani expects the capital that paused during the conflict to return largely in the fourth quarter.

“I think in the next few weeks you will see a recovery,” he said.

“The big liquidity spike will come in September, once people are back from holidays and the summer is over and people are back to business.”

AGBI earlier reported that the war risks slowing Dubai’s population growth, with job losses, expatriate departures and a wave of new supply compounding pressure on investors.

Despite sporadic drone attacks since a ceasefire announcement in April and lingering concerns over long-term regional security, Sajwani believes investors will ultimately see the period as a demonstration of the UAE’s defences rather than a turning point for the market.

“I think people will see it more as an opportunity [to invest],” he said.

“Liquidity didn’t dry up, it was just on the sidelines. People still wanted to buy… they are waiting to see what happens, which is more than fair.”

Flight to quality

Market data shows activity has slowed sharply since the war began on February 28, but prices proved comparatively resilient.

Residential property sales in May reached around AED22 billion ($6.1 billion), according to Reidin, a research firm that analyses Dubai Land Department data.

That was down 42 percent from April and nearly half the AED46 billion recorded in February just before the UAE faced a barrage of missiles and drones – more than any other nation targeted in the US-Israeli war against Iran.

The slowdown was concentrated in the off-plan market, which accounts for roughly three-quarters of transactions. Sales of homes still under construction fell nearly 50 percent month-on-month to about AED16 billion in May. For ready homes, transaction values fell less than 15 percent from April.

But citywide prices per square foot, according to Reidin’s reports – barring distress deals that made up about a tenth of advertised properties – declined less than 5 percent over the same three months.

Sajwani said the resilience was most evident in Dubai’s prime districts, such as Palm Jumeirah, Emirates Hills, Jumeirah, DIFC and Downtown Dubai, where supply remains constrained.

“In Grade A locations, they have not corrected,” he said, while Grade B locations have softened by around 10 percent – a decline he characterised as “not much”.

“People will [now] focus more on Grade A, on key locations, as they realise that’s the hardest thing to replicate, and in any market those always are the most solid.”

Scarcity thesis

The view is reflected in AHS’s acquisition strategy – driven by the scarcity of prime sites.

The company recently agreed to acquire the Shangri-La Dubai hotel on Sheikh Zayed Road for AED1 billion.

The 43-storey tower, with a view of the Burj Khalifa, Dubai Mall and the ocean, sits next door to Trump Tower Dubai, being built by Saudi developer Dar Global.

Sajwani said the deal was negotiated before the conflict and closed at the same valuation.

“We agreed the price and the terms in January, but we only signed in May… and the price didn’t change,” he said.

“There’s no empty land in that strip.”

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