Live: Will Micron Crush Q3 Earnings Tonight After Tuesday’s 13% Selloff?

Everyone expects Micron to beat earnings tonight. The bigger question is what management says about margins and demand heading into fiscal 2027.

The AI story is well understood at this point. HBM demand remains strong, supply is tight, and hyperscalers continue spending aggressively. What’s less clear is whether Micron can maintain the extraordinary profitability investors have become accustomed to over the last few quarters.

Micron guided for roughly 81% gross margins in Q3. Investors are looking for management to defend that level and extend visibility into 2027. If margins show signs of pressure, investors may begin to question how much of today’s earnings power is sustainable, especially given the stock’s recent move to over $1 trillion in market cap.

Peer Scorecard: 3-for-3 on Beats

Three AI-adjacent memory and storage peers have recently reported revenue and earnings beats.

• NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) posted $81.61B in revenue (+85.2% YoY) and beat EPS by 5.42%.
• Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX) delivered a record 47.0% non-GAAP gross margin and beat by 17.13%.
• Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC) crossed 50% gross margin for the first time, beating by 13.71%.

Common threads: These businesses all saw hyperscaler-driven demand, margin expansion, and guidance increases, with Seagate and Western Digital hiking dividends.

Both storage names fell sharply today, with Seagate down 7% and Western Digital down 7.64%, mirroring Micron’s 13% pre-earnings drop.

For Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) peer fundamentals support the AI memory thesis, but with management guiding for $33.5B revenue and ~81% gross margin, the bar is unusually elevated heading into earnings.

Tonight’s headline numbers from Micron (NASDAQ:MU) will almost certainly clear the bar. Polymarket pegs a 96.1% odds of an earnings beat, and management has guided conservatively all cycle, guiding for revenue of $18.70 billion last quarter, then delivering $23.86 billion.

The real swing factor is the Q4 outlook. Bullish guidance would push revenue above roughly $36 billion, hold gross margin at/above 81%, and confirm HBM allocation sold into calendar 2027.

On the other hand, bearish guidance would look like flat sequential revenue heading into Q4, any hint of margin compression, or cautious hyperscaler inventory commentary.

After a 31.04% surprise last quarter still produced a -19.99% one-week drop, the lesson is clear that guidance, rather than the earnings beat, will drive the stock’s reaction.

Micron’s Q3 earnings report tonight is likely to come down to two things: management’s outlook for fiscal 2026 and what CEO Sanjay Mehrotra says about demand heading into 2027.

Investors already know AI is driving strong demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM). The bigger question is how long that demand can support today’s pricing and profitability.

If Mehrotra extends HBM visibility into 2027 and reinforces the company’s roughly 81% gross margin outlook, it would strengthen the case that the AI memory boom still has room to run.

If either of those pillars starts to weaken, investors may begin questioning how sustainable today’s earnings power really is. After all, Micron shares have climbed more than 700% over the past year, leaving little room for disappointment.

This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. You’ll get expert analysis of Micron’s Q3 earnings. Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically. We expect Micron’s earnings to be released shortly after 4:00 p.m. ET.