Ethereum (ETH) Price: Whales Are Buying Millions — But a 30% Drop May Still Be Coming

TLDR

• The ETH Realized Price Lower Band sits near $1,150, pointing to a possible 30% further decline
• US spot ETH ETFs recorded $82.3 million in outflows on Tuesday, heading for seven straight weeks of negative flows
• a16z withdrew $42.62 million worth of ETH from Binance on June 23
• Tom Lee’s Bitmine purchased 35,138 ETH worth $58.65 million, adding to $92 million bought the prior week
• Analyst Ted Pillows says sellers are capping rallies above $1,700 and new lows are possible unless ETH reclaims that level

Ethereum is trading around $1,615, down more than 3% on Wednesday, as selling pressure continues across multiple metrics.

A key onchain tool called the ETH Realized Price Lower Band currently sits near $1,150. In past bear markets — 2018 and 2022 — ETH found its bottom around this level. That puts a potential further drop of around 30% on the table if the pattern repeats.

Crypto analyst Ted Pillows flagged the weakness on social media, writing that sellers are active above $1,700 and capping any rally. He said: “Until Ethereum breaks and reclaims the $1,700 level with strong spot demand, the chances of new lows will go up.” His warning aligns with the current technical picture.

On the price chart, ETH is trading below its 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages, which are clustered between $1,740 and $2,050. The RSI is sitting near 34, deep in oversold territory.

If selling continues, support levels are at $1,611, then $1,524, with a stronger floor at $1,404. A break below that would open the door to $1,156.

ETH exchange net flows have been slowly climbing over the past two weeks, a sign that more coins are moving to exchanges — often a signal that holders are preparing to sell.

Institutional Buyers Step In

Despite the weakness, large buyers are active. On June 23, a wallet linked to venture firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) withdrew 25,560 ETH — about $42.62 million — from Binance.

Tom Lee’s Bitmine bought another 35,138 ETH worth $58.65 million on the same day. The firm also spent $92 million on 52,203 ETH in the previous week.

Sharplink, the second-largest Ethereum treasury company, staked an additional 509 ETH this week, bringing its total staked ETH to 22,102.

Supply Data Points to Long-Term Confidence

Santiment data shows that the largest whale wallets — those holding between 10 million and 100 million ETH — have grown their balances to roughly 135.2 million ETH. Mid-sized holders have also been buying since late May.

Wallets in the 10,000–100,000 ETH and 100,000–1 million ETH ranges have reduced holdings, suggesting redistribution rather than a broad sell-off.

US spot ETH ETF outflows totaled $82.3 million on Tuesday alone. June has seen $346.39 million in outflows, following $540.88 million in May.

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