Citi cuts Bitcoin and Ether targets as ETF outflows deepen

Citi cut its 12-month Bitcoin and Ether forecasts as negative ETF flows and slow U.S. crypto legislation weighed on market sentiment.

Reuters reported that Citigroup lowered its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000. The bank also cut its Ether forecast to $2,240 from $3,175 in a note dated Tuesday.

The cuts marked another downgrade from Citi this year. The bank had already lowered its Bitcoin target from $143,000 to $112,000 and its Ether target from $4,304 to $3,175 earlier in 2026, as previously reported.

The bank added that Bitcoin ETF flows were down about $3.3 billion so far this year.

ETF outflows weaken market demand

Citi said it cut its expected net ETF inflows over the next 12 months to zero from $10 billion. That shift was one of the main reasons for the lower Bitcoin and Ether targets.

The downgrade comes after a sharp turn in spot Bitcoin ETF demand. As reported earlier today, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.5 billion in net outflows in June, their worst month since the products launched in January 2024.

The ETF weakness has also affected Ether. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw outflows in recent sessions as traders reduced exposure to risk assets. Citi said broader investor adoption may stay on hold until a new catalyst appears.

U.S. crypto legislation adds pressure

Citi also pointed to slow progress on U.S. digital asset legislation. The bank said delays in Washington had reduced near-term confidence in the crypto market.

The CLARITY Act has been slowed by ethics concerns tied to President Donald Trump’s crypto business interests. The bill has cleared major steps, but it remains stuck as lawmakers debate conflict-of-interest rules and other provisions.

The legislative delay matters because many investors expected clearer U.S. rules to support institutional adoption. Without a firm timeline, Citi said adoption could pause until markets see a fresh driver.

TD Cowen also warned that the bill’s path remains uncertain before the November midterm election. The report said unresolved issues could keep the market structure bill from moving quickly through the Senate.

Treasury selling risk weighs on outlook

Citi also cited concern over possible Bitcoin selling by digital asset treasury companies. These firms hold Bitcoin or other crypto assets on their balance sheets and can become forced or willing sellers when market stress rises.

As previously reported by crypto.news, the CLARITY Act could also affect Bitcoin and Ether treasury companies by pulling some structures into CFTC commodity-pool oversight. That debate has added another layer of uncertainty around firms built around large crypto holdings.

Citi’s bear case assumes recessionary macro conditions and continued ETF outflows. In that scenario, the bank sees Bitcoin at $53,000 and Ether at $1,094 over the next year.

Bitcoin recently traded near $58,897, while Ether traded near $1,579.71. Both assets remain far below their 2025 highs and below key long-term averages, leaving traders focused on ETF flows, U.S. policy news and whether large holders continue to reduce exposure.