CFTC Probes Oil Trades Ahead of Trump’s Iran War Announcements

Key Insights

• The CFTC has reportedly started investigating possible insider trading in oil ahead of Trump’s market-moving posts about the Iran war.
• The regulator has reportedly written to CME and ICE, requesting that they hand over data.
• CFTC is particularly examining trading activity on March 23 and April 7.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has commenced investigations into suspicious trades on the oil futures market. This follows multiple calls for the derivatives market regulator to investigate suspected insider trading.

Source: X

Concerns about timeliness in oil futures trading have increased. Several trades appeared to coincide with President Trump’s posts on Truth Social about the Iran war.

CFTC Calls for Futures Exchanges CME and ICE to Hand Over Trading Data

Bloomberg reports that the CFTC asked Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) to provide data from their futures platforms.

The regulator demanded the information directly from both exchanges. The media giant cited unnamed sources familiar with the matter.

CME owns the Nymex platform where the l West Texas Intermediate oil futures trade. ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, also owns ICE Futures Europe. That venue hosts Brent oil trading, which serves as the global crude benchmark.

The report noted that CFTC would have to make any requests for Brent data through the UK Financial Conduct Authority. None of the regulators or exchanges has confirmed if such requests have been made.

Meanwhile, the CFTC is reportedly requesting Tag 50, a unique identifier for the entity or individual behind trades. The CFTC could use this to determine whether those behind the trades have insider information.

CFTC Likely to Focus Its Investigation on Two Events

Bloomberg claimed the CFTC is focusing its probe on two specific periods. Trading volume spiked just before announcements in both cases.

Investigators are examining whether those surges suggest unusual activity. One was March 23, when Trump announced a delay on planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.

In the 15 minutes before the announcement, billions of dollars’ worth of oil and stock futures were traded. Traders sold $500 million in oil futures before an announcement that later caused a market dip.

The same thing played out on April 7. At that time, Trump announced the two-week ceasefire via a Truth Social post. That triggered a 15% decline in oil futures.

In the hours before the post, futures activity rose significantly. With this, Reuters reported that traders placed $950 million in trades on the oil price falling.

The massive trading activity around President Trump’s announcements on the Iran war triggered calls for an investigation from Democrats.

Congressman Ritchie Torres wrote to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and CFTC chairs. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse also released a letter.

The White House sent an internal email to all staff. It warned employees not to use confidential information for trading on financial or prediction markets.

However, this Iran war is not the first time during the Trump administration that concerns of insider trading have emerged. The same pattern appeared during the operation to arrest Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

It also happened before Trump paused the Liberation Day tariffs. Both events saw unusual trading activity ahead of the announcements.

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