Nebius Has 40% Upside in 2026 as Global AI Data Center Shortage Worsens

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Artificial intelligence is creating a new kind of infrastructure race. While investors often focus on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) chips or the latest AI models, the real bottleneck is increasingly becoming physical capacity — power, land, and data centers. 

The latest global data center report from CBRE shows that demand continues to outpace supply across nearly every major market in the world. Vacancy rates have fallen to historic lows, pricing continues to rise, and new facilities are being leased before construction is complete. For investors, that creates a powerful backdrop for companies that already control large-scale AI infrastructure. 

Few companies are positioned more directly at the center of that trend than Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS).

The AI Infrastructure Crunch Is Getting Worse

According to CBRE’s Q1 2026 Global Data Center Trends Report, North America remains the tightest data center market in the world, with overall vacancy rates falling to just 0.9%.

The largest markets are effectively sold out:

Those numbers are key because vacancy is the industry’s inventory. When available capacity approaches zero, customers have fewer options and providers gain pricing power.

CBRE reported that the four largest North American markets absorbed 2.2 gigawatts (GW) of capacity over the last year, a 34% increase from the prior period. Dallas-Fort Worth offers perhaps the clearest example of the imbalance. Of the 716.7 megawatts currently under construction, 88% has already been pre-leased. Customers are reserving space before the buildings are finished because they cannot risk waiting.

The same trend is appearing globally. CBRE found average monthly colocation pricing reached approximately $403 per kilowatt in Singapore and roughly $340 to $350 in Tokyo. Capacity is becoming a premium asset.

Nebius Owns What Everyone Else Is Looking For

This is why Nebius’s story is compelling. The company has evolved into one of the largest independent AI cloud providers serving enterprises that need access to advanced AI computing infrastructure. While many competitors are still trying to secure power and GPUs, Nebius has already locked down substantial resources.

According to the company’s first-quarter 2026 earnings release:

• Revenue reached $399 million, up 684% year over year.
• AI cloud revenue expanded 841%.
• Contracted backlog exceeded $50 billion.
• Total power capacity surpassed 3.5 GW.

Those backlog figures are particularly important because they represent long-term customer commitments rather than speculative forecasts.

Among the largest agreements are a reported $17.4 billion commitment from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) through 2031 and a $27 billion five-year contract with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META). Together, those deals alone represent infrastructure demand that stretches years into the future.

Power has become the limiting factor in AI expansion, and Nebius already controls capacity that many rivals are still attempting to secure.

Nvidia’s Backing Creates Another Advantage

The second pillar of the bull case is access to GPUs. Nvidia holds an equity stake in Nebius. Because AI infrastructure growth depends on obtaining enough advanced processors to meet customer demand, Nebius benefits from a direct relationship with the company supplying much of the world’s AI computing hardware. Many cloud providers are left competing for limited GPU allocations,

Nebius stock has gained 239% year-to-date and 492% over the last 12 months. Yet even after that rally, shares trade at roughly five times management’s projected exit annual recurring revenue.

Granted, high-growth AI stocks carry risk. Execution, customer concentration, and valuation all matter. That said, the CBRE data suggests the underlying market conditions remain exceptionally favorable.

Key Takeaway

In short, CBRE’s latest report confirms that the global shortage of AI-ready data center capacity is intensifying rather than easing. Vacancy rates remain near zero, demand continues to exceed new supply, and pricing is moving higher across major markets.

Nebius sits at the intersection of all three trends: AI demand, power availability, and GPU access. With revenue growing 684%, a $50 billion backlog already in place, and more than 3.5 GW of contracted power capacity, the company possesses assets that are becoming harder to find each quarter.

Ultimately, if the global AI infrastructure shortage persists through 2027 as CBRE’s data suggests, a further 40% gain for Nebius stock by the end of the year looks less like an aggressive target and more like a plausible outcome.

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