The Crypto Clarity Act just took a hit. The largest prediction market, Polymarket, has dropped the odds of this bill passing in 2026 down to 39%, and that number tells a clear story about where things stand in the Senate right now.
Source: Polymarket Official
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, known as H.R. 3633, sets out to build a full federal framework for digital assets. It splits oversight between two agencies so companies know exactly who to answer to.
The CFTC gets primary authority over digital commodities, meaning assets built on decentralized blockchains. The SEC handles assets that behave more like securities. The bill also adds consumer protections, DeFi safe harbors, exchange and broker rules, illicit finance measures, and stablecoin provisions.
This bill has already cleared more ground than most cryptocurrency legislation before it. The House passed it on July 17, 2025, with a strong bipartisan vote of 294-134 during what lawmakers called Crypto Week.
From there, the Senate received it in September 2025 and sent it to the Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee. On May 14, 2026, the committee advanced it 15-9 under Chairman Tim Scott, with every Republican and two Democrats voting yes.
It now sits on the Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders, listed as Calendar No. 423 as of June 1, 2026.
Progress stalled early this year for a few reasons. Between January and April 2026, industry pushback over stablecoin yield language and DeFi provisions forced lawmakers to postpone planned markups.
Banks pushed back against platforms offering interest-like returns on stablecoins, worried it would pull money away from bank deposits. Digital asset firms raised the opposite concern, arguing the DeFi safe harbor language didn't go far enough. A White House meeting aimed at settling the stablecoin dispute ended without a resolution.
May 2026 brought its own complications. Lawmakers filed more than 100 amendments during markup, covering illicit finance rules, ethics requirements for officials holding crypto, and CFTC commissioner nominations.
Some amendments got ruled out of order entirely, and several Democrats flagged ongoing concerns about consumer protection and money laundering safeguards.
A few specific obstacles stand between this act and a full Senate vote:
Final wording on stablecoin rewards and yield rules remains unsettled
DeFi safe harbor language still needs agreement from both industry and regulators
Ethics provisions for officials holding cryptocurrency sit outside the Banking Committee's usual jurisdiction
The bill needs 60 votes to clear a Senate floor vote, requiring several Democratic senators to join
Floor time is limited before the August recess and the November 2026 midterms
Passing this year would require quick resolution through manager's amendments, strong backing from Senate leadership, and enough bipartisan votes to clear the 60-vote threshold.
If Congress misses that window, the bill likely carries over into the next session starting in 2027, extending the current stretch of enforcement-driven cryptocurrency policy.
For now, the path forward depends entirely on how Senate leaders schedule floor time in the coming weeks. Whether this bill reaches President Trump's desk in 2026 or gets pushed into next year, the outcome will shape how digital asset companies operate in the U.S. for years to come.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.


