SpaceX Could Reach $2.48 Trillion On AI Bet, Wedbush Says

Wedbush initiated coverage of SpaceX with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target, calling the company more of an artificial intelligence infrastructure play than a space business.

Key Points

Wedbush Backs SpaceX

Wedbush initiated the coverage on Tuesday, setting a $190 price target that implies roughly 11% upside from SpaceX's closing price of $170.86. The firm built its number on a sum-of-the-parts model that leans heavily on future AI compute demand rather than current launch or satellite revenue alone, using 2028 estimates to arrive at the figure.

Dan Ives, Wedbush's Global Head of Tech Research, made the case on CNBC's Fast Money. He argued that SpaceX's AI compute business could eventually rank among the market's top long-term hyperscaler bets, even as the stock climbed more than 4% that session and extended its gains after hours.

Ives conceded the stock looks expensive against current revenue. He said execution over the next two to three years could still make it one of the market's strongest AI plays, citing supply chain checks in Taiwan and Korea showing chip demand outstripping supply by roughly twelve to one.

That optimism, he added, should eventually spread into software names tied to the broader AI buildout, with memory chips described as foundational to the trend.

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Starlink Anchors Valuation

The debate over SpaceX's price tag runs wider than one analyst note. Evercore's Roger Altman has warned that traditional valuation models struggle with SpaceX and IPO-bound Anthropic because of their scale, AI exposure and uncertain long-term cash flows. Elon Musk responded publicly this week, saying short-term economic setbacks are inevitable but that AI and robotics would drive powerful long-term growth for the company.

Starlink remains the real engine. Wedbush's sum-of-the-parts model yields roughly $2.48 trillion in implied enterprise value, with Starlink's subscriber base and expanding margins carrying much of that weight. Launch operations and the newer AI unit contribute far smaller slices of the total.

The satellite broadband unit counts about 12 million subscribers and generates roughly $66 in average revenue per user, producing close to $19.3 billion in trailing revenue with a gross margin near 49%. That business alone could carry a large share of SpaceX's valuation even without the AI upside Wedbush is betting on.

Shares have swung sharply since the company's Jun. 12 debut, testing key support levels before a recent bond sale stirred fresh concerns about a valuation bubble among some investors.

SpaceX also priced new unsecured notes this year and drew a BBB-range credit rating from Fitch and S&P as it works to repay an earlier bridge loan.

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