Stellar Price Prediction: Can XLM Build on Its +11% Price Breakout as Institutional Adoption Grows?

Stellar has started July on stronger footing after breaking out of a rounding bottom pattern that has caught the attention of technical traders. At the same time, XLM keeps adding institutional use cases that could support demand over the coming years.

Crypto analyst Alpha Crypto Signal believes the latest breakout is an early sign that momentum is improving. The setup looks encouraging, but buyers still have several resistance levels to clear before the XLM price can fully shake off the broader downtrend.

The XLM price breaks out of a rounding bottom pattern

Alpha Crypto Signal believes Stellar has reached an important point after spending weeks moving lower from the June highs around $0.235 to $0.240.

The correction eventually found support between roughly $0.172 and $0.175. Buyers stepped in from that area, pushing the XLM price back toward $0.1996 and completing what the analyst describes as a rounding bottom breakout.

The move also carried the XLM price back above two important trend indicators. Price now trades above the 9-period EMA at $0.1912 and the 50-period SMA at $0.1818. Holding above both the moving averages keeps the outlook positive on the short-term.

Resistance levels lie between $0.2050 to $0.2100. This level had seen the sellers taking control in the past. In case the buyers break above this level, the next level of resistance would be $0.2200 to $0.2250 before going ahead to the level of $0.2350.

The breakout only stays valid if buyers defend the neckline. A move back below the 9 EMA would weaken the setup and place the $0.172 to $0.175 support area back in focus.

The XLM price is improving across multiple timeframes

Moreover, we analyzed the daily and 4-hour timeframes of Stellar to see whether the bigger technical picture confirms the breakout.

In the daily timeframe, the XLM price is oscillating around $0.2000 after having recovered from the lows of $0.10 that were made earlier this year. This is close to a 100% recovery of the asset from the lows visible on the chart.

Daily XLM chart analysis

XLM is also trading comfortably above the 100-day SMA at the current price of $0.1766. Price continues trading about 13.3% above that level. Moreover, momentum has picked up. The value of the daily RSI is 53.38, which puts it above the 50-level of neutrality. That leaves room for additional upside if buying pressure continues.

We also had a look at the 4-hour chart, where the XLM price is trading almost directly on top of the 100-period SMA at $0.1994. The 4-hour RSI has climbed to 67.82. Buyers remain in control for now, although momentum is getting close to overbought territory.

4-hour XLM chart analysis

The next technical target comes in around the Fibonacci resistance at $0.2305. If that level gives way, traders will begin watching the higher retracement zones near $0.3215 and $0.3696.

On-chain activity still leaves room for improvement

The Glassnode data presents a more balanced picture than the charts. The market cap of Stellar fell from about $6.6 billion to $5.9 billion within the observation timeframe. This equals to $700 million, which is a 10.6% decrease. Funds have kept being withdrawn from the ecosystem during the period despite price stabilization.

The second dataset shows the distance at which Stellar is from the all-time high. The price of XLM is currently traded 80% to 82% below its all-time high of $0.9381 recorded in January 2018.

The good news is that the drawdown has not been growing over the timeframe observed. Price has stabilized instead of continuing its previous decline, although that alone is not enough to confirm a lasting recovery.

Stellar institutional adoption keeps expanding

The most notable development comes from Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), whose plans are to test the use of the Stellar network to settle tokenized Russell 1000 stocks and U.S. Treasuries during the first half of 2027.

DTCC processes securities linked to more than $114 trillion in assets across financial markets. If that pilot expands beyond its initial rollout, Stellar would gain direct institutional transaction activity through tokenized asset settlement.

The network has also passed another milestone. More than $3 billion worth of real-world assets are now tokenized on Stellar through firms including Franklin Templeton, WisdomTree and Ondo Finance. Those products generate network activity beyond traditional payments and create additional demand for Stellar's infrastructure.

Development work also continues. Stellar plans to introduce quantum-resistant signatures in 2027 alongside upgrades targeting transaction throughput of roughly 5,000 transactions per second.

Competition remains strong, though. XRP, stablecoins and other payment-focused blockchains continue competing for cross-border settlement activity. Broader crypto sentiment also remains cautious, with the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 16, placing the market in Extreme Fear territory.

Can the XLM price continue moving higher?

The XLM price has finally started showing technical improvement after months of weakness. The rounding bottom breakout, movement above the moving averages, and better RSI numbers indicate an increase in buying pressure.

The first hurdle is found between $0.2050 and $0.2100. Breaking out of this range will reinforce the bullish scenario and make the $0.2305 Fibonacci resistance level come into play. A move beyond that level would put the higher retracement targets back on the table.

The XLM breakout area needs to hold, and the broader crypto market also needs to cooperate. Losing support near the 9 EMA and 50 SMA would weaken the recovery and send attention back toward the $0.172 to $0.175 support zone.

According to CoinCodex's 1-month XLM price prediction, the price could reach $0.2357, pointing to moderate upside if buyers continue defending the breakout zone and reclaim resistance around $0.2050 before testing the $0.2305 Fibonacci level.