Citigroup cut 12 month Bitcoin target from $112,000 to $82,000 citing weak ETF inflows

Citigroup has revised its 12 month price forecasts for Bitcoin and Ether downward, citing fading investor demand, slowing spot ETF inflows, and ongoing delays in US cryptocurrency regulations as the main factors behind the update.

Price targets lowered

The US-based financial giant reduced its 12 month Bitcoin target from $112,000 to $82,000, while Ether’s forecast was cut from $3,175 to $2,240. Citigroup, one of the largest global banking and investment service providers, attributes the revision to weaker than expected market dynamics in both assets.

Bitcoin recently traded near $58,900, marking one of its lowest levels since September 2024. Similarly, Ether dropped to around $1,586, a price last seen in April 2025. Both assets have slipped below their long-term moving averages, signaling continued selling pressure.

ETF flows shape outlook

A key point highlighted by Citigroup is its adjustment of the 12 month forecast for net Bitcoin ETF inflows from $10 billion to zero. The bank calculates that Bitcoin ETFs have experienced about $3.3 billion in net outflows so far this year—significantly undercutting what was once a major source of demand driving previous price rallies.

A spot ETF is an exchange traded fund that directly holds the underlying asset. In the crypto market, such products allow institutional and traditional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin and other digital currencies without directly managing wallets.

Deeper slump forecast in a weaker scenario

In a more pessimistic scenario, where economic headwinds persist and ETF outflows continue, Citigroup warned that Bitcoin could fall as low as $53,000 and Ether to $1,094 over the next 12 months.

The bank also flagged concerns about slow progress on US crypto legislation, as well as the possibility that corporations holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets could move to liquidate some assets, further eroding market confidence.

Institutional outlook shifts

While strong ETF inflows last year led many institutions to raise their projections, the recent downturn has forced a reversal. Analysts are now less concerned with how high Bitcoin can go, and more focused on measuring the extent of lost buying power draining from the market.

The current outlook indicates that investors have become more cautious. Waning price momentum and heightened market uncertainty are prompting participants to readjust their positions and strategies.

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