Beyond Nonfarm Payrolls: What Capital Rotation Is Really Telling Us
On Thursday, July 2, the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls report arrived a day early because of the Independence Day holiday. The June Nonfarm Payrolls data showed the economy added just 57,000 jobs — roughly half of what economists expected. Within hours of the release, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed more than 1% to a record close, while the Nasdaq fell, weighed down by semiconductors and AI heavyweights. Same data. Same day. Opposite outcomes. Much of the commentary I read afte