Bitcoin could enter an entirely different phase of growth over the next decade as more traditional financial institutions begin treating the asset as an official part of their investment portfolios.MaBitcoin could enter an entirely different phase of growth over the next decade as more traditional financial institutions begin treating the asset as an official part of their investment portfolios.Ma

Bitwise Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $1.3 Million by 2035: Will Institutional Capital Be the Biggest Growth Driver?

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2026/08/10 17:42

Bitcoin could enter an entirely different phase of growth over the next decade as more traditional financial institutions begin treating the asset as an official part of their investment portfolios.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, believes Bitcoin adoption could expand from financial advisers and family offices to much larger pools of capital, including pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds. These institutions collectively control tens to hundreds of trillions of dollars in assets worldwide.

In its long-term base case, Bitwise projects that Bitcoin could reach approximately $1.3 million by 2035, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate of around 28.3%. This forecast is not simply based on the assumption that a fixed amount of money will flow into Bitcoin, but combines several factors including institutional capital inflows, limited supply, and the possibility that Bitcoin could capture roughly one-quarter of the global store-of-value market.

If this thesis plays out, Bitcoin’s next major growth driver may no longer depend primarily on crypto investors or large corporate accumulators such as Strategy, but instead on Bitcoin becoming more deeply integrated into the global asset management system.

Key Takeaways

Bitwise’s long-term base case places Bitcoin at approximately $1.3 million by 2035.

This price target implies a compound annual growth rate of around 28.3%.

Bitwise sees institutional capital as one of the most important growth drivers over the next decade.

Financial advisers and family offices may lead adoption, followed by pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds.

Bitwise assumes Bitcoin could capture approximately 25% of the store-of-value market in the future.

Bitcoin ETFs are helping diversify demand rather than leaving the market dependent on a small number of large corporate buyers such as Strategy.

The $1.3 million figure is a Bitwise forecast scenario, not a guaranteed Bitcoin price.

Why Does Bitwise Predict Bitcoin Could Reach $1.3 Million?

A price of $1.3 million may sound extremely high compared with Bitcoin’s current value, but Bitwise’s forecast is based on a time horizon of roughly a decade.

In its long-term report, the company assumes a compound annual growth rate of approximately 28.3%.

This is very different from predicting that Bitcoin will reach $1.3 million within one or two years.

Bitwise’s long-term thesis is based on three primary drivers.

Institutional Capital

Bitcoin is becoming increasingly accessible to traditional investors through ETFs, institutional custody services, and regulated financial infrastructure.

Limited Supply

Bitcoin has a maximum supply of 21 million BTC, while the rate of new issuance continues to decline after each halving.

If demand rises while new supply decreases, upward pressure on price could become increasingly significant.

Bitcoin Becoming a Store-of-Value Asset

Bitwise does not assume that Bitcoin needs to completely replace gold.

Instead, Bitcoin only needs to capture a meaningful share of the global store-of-value market to support a valuation significantly higher than today.

How Large Could Institutional Capital Flows Become?

This is the most important part of Matt Hougan’s thesis.

The Bitcoin market is already large, but it remains relatively small compared with the overall global asset management industry.

Groups such as:

Pension funds.

Insurance companies.

Sovereign wealth funds.

Family offices.

Asset management firms.

Financial advisers.

manage enormous amounts of capital.

This creates a very important dynamic:

Institutions do not need to move a large percentage of their portfolios into crypto.

Bitcoin only needs to become a small allocation within traditional portfolios for the absolute amount of capital involved to become extremely large.

For example, theoretically, if a group of investors controls $100 trillion in assets and allocates an average of 1% to Bitcoin, the total allocation could reach $1 trillion.

This does not mean that $1 trillion in capital inflows would automatically push Bitcoin to a specific price, but it illustrates the potential scale of institutional adoption.

Why Could Just 1% Matter So Much?

For a pension fund or insurance company, a 1% portfolio allocation may be considered relatively small.

For Bitcoin, however, that amount could be enormous.

The reason lies in the size difference between traditional financial markets and the amount of Bitcoin actually available for trading.

Bitcoin’s maximum supply is only:

21 million BTC.

Of that amount:

Some Bitcoin is believed to be permanently lost.

A large amount is held by long-term holders.

Some is held within ETFs.

An increasing amount sits on corporate balance sheets.

Miners create only a relatively small amount of new BTC each day.

As a result, the supply actually available for sale is significantly lower than Bitcoin’s nominal total supply.

If institutional demand increases faster than the amount of BTC available for sale, price must adjust to balance supply and demand.

This scarcity mechanism is central to the long-term Bitcoin investment thesis.

How Have Bitcoin ETFs Changed the Game?

Before spot Bitcoin ETFs, institutions seeking Bitcoin exposure had to solve numerous operational challenges.

They needed to:

Find custody solutions.

Manage private keys.

Evaluate crypto exchanges.

Build compliance processes.

Handle accounting and operational issues.

ETFs eliminate many of these barriers.

A financial adviser can now gain exposure to Bitcoin through the same systems used to purchase:

Stocks.

Bonds.

Gold ETFs.

Index ETFs.

This transforms Bitcoin from an asset outside the traditional financial system into a product that can be directly integrated into conventional portfolios.

This could be one of the most important structural changes affecting Bitcoin demand.

Institutional Adoption Could Happen in Stages

Hougan believes institutional adoption will not happen all at once.

Groups with greater flexibility and higher risk tolerance are likely to move first.

First Stage: Financial Advisers and Family Offices

These groups can generally adjust portfolios more flexibly and respond faster to emerging asset classes.

Bitcoin ETFs make allocations significantly easier.

Next Stage: Pension Funds

Pension funds typically follow more conservative investment processes.

However, as Bitcoin ETFs develop longer track records, liquidity improves, and infrastructure matures, some pension funds may begin considering small allocations.

Insurance Companies

Insurance companies control enormous amounts of capital but operate under strict risk management requirements.

Bitcoin may need to demonstrate further improvements in liquidity, volatility management, and regulatory integration before this group participates on a broad scale.

Sovereign Wealth Funds

These could become one of the largest sources of long-term demand.

Even a small allocation from only a handful of sovereign wealth funds could create significant demand relative to Bitcoin’s new supply.

Could Bitcoin Capture 25% of the Store-of-Value Market?

One important assumption behind Bitwise’s forecast is that Bitcoin could eventually capture approximately one-quarter of the global store-of-value market.

Gold currently dominates this category.

However, Bitcoin has several distinctive characteristics:

Verifiable supply.

A maximum limit of 21 million BTC.

Cross-border transferability.

Digital custody.

Global trading accessibility.

High divisibility.

Bitwise believes these characteristics could lead Bitcoin to become increasingly used as a form of “digital gold.”

Importantly, Bitcoin does not need to eliminate gold.

If the overall store-of-value market continues expanding and Bitcoin captures around 25% of that market, its total market capitalization could become significantly larger than it is today.

Strategy Will No Longer Be the Only Major Driver

Over the past several years, Strategy has become the symbol of corporate Bitcoin accumulation.

The company has repeatedly raised capital to purchase BTC and has become one of the largest institutional Bitcoin holders in the world.

However, Hougan believes the structure of Bitcoin demand is changing.

Previously:

Retail + crypto funds + miners + Strategy

were among the most visible sources of demand.

In the future, that structure could become:

ETFs + advisers + family offices + corporations + pension funds + insurers + sovereign wealth funds.

This shift is important.

Bitcoin would become less dependent on the actions of a handful of major buyers.

Could ETFs Become More Important Than Bitcoin Treasury Companies?

Treasury companies such as Strategy may continue to play an important role, but ETFs have one major advantage: scalability.

A company seeking to purchase additional Bitcoin must:

Be capable of raising capital.

Issue equity or debt.

Maintain its balance sheet structure.

Convince shareholders.

ETFs work differently.

When investors purchase ETF shares and the fund needs to create additional shares, Bitcoin demand can flow directly into the market through the creation/redemption mechanism.

ETFs therefore create a scalable pathway between traditional capital markets and Bitcoin.

What Could Cause the $1.3 Million Forecast to Fail?

Bitwise’s scenario remains only a forecast.

Many factors could prevent Bitcoin from reaching this price.

Institutions Allocate Less Than Expected

Pension funds or insurance companies may continue viewing Bitcoin as too volatile.

Regulatory Changes

Governments could introduce more restrictive regulations for crypto.

Bitcoin Loses Its Store-of-Value Position

Another technology or asset class could emerge as a competitor to Bitcoin.

Technology Risks

Security, cryptography, and long-term developments such as quantum computing still require monitoring.

Market Volatility

Bitcoin has historically experienced significant drawdowns. Institutional adoption does not mean these cycles will disappear completely.

The Most Important Part Is Not the $1.3 Million Price Target

It is easy to focus entirely on the $1.3 million figure.

However, the more important part of Bitwise’s thesis is the structural change in who buys Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has gone through several phases.

Initially:

Cypherpunks → retail investors → crypto funds.

Then:

Corporations → ETFs → asset managers.

The next stage Bitwise expects is:

Pension funds → insurers → sovereign wealth funds.

If this transition actually occurs, Bitcoin will not only increase in value.

Its position within the global financial system will also change.

Impact on Bitcoin

If the institutional adoption thesis becomes reality, Bitcoin could benefit from three long-term changes.

More Stable Demand

Institutions generally build long-term allocations rather than trading entirely around short-term market trends.

Lower Liquid Supply

Bitcoin accumulated by ETFs, corporations, and long-term holders could reduce the amount of BTC available for trading.

Bitcoin Becomes an Asset Class

This may be the most important change.

Instead of asking:

“Should we invest in Bitcoin?”

portfolio managers may begin asking:

“What percentage should we allocate to Bitcoin?”

When the question changes in this way, Bitcoin’s position within traditional finance changes as well.

Conclusion

Bitwise’s forecast that Bitcoin could reach approximately $1.3 million by 2035 is a highly optimistic scenario, but the thesis behind the figure is more important than the number itself.

Bitwise is betting that Bitcoin will continue its transition from a speculative crypto asset into an accepted investment asset within institutional portfolios.

Bitcoin ETFs have opened the first door. Financial advisers and family offices may move first, while pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds could become the next major sources of capital.

Institutions do not need to move most of their assets into crypto. With traditional capital pools worth tens or hundreds of trillions of dollars, even a small allocation could create enormous demand relative to Bitcoin’s limited supply.

If this trend occurs alongside Bitcoin continuing to gain market share within the global store-of-value market, Bitwise’s $1.3 million target would have a basis worth monitoring.

However, it remains a long-term scenario based on multiple assumptions, not a guaranteed Bitcoin price forecast.

FAQ

How High Does Bitwise Predict Bitcoin Could Go by 2035?

In its long-term base case, Bitwise predicts that Bitcoin could reach approximately $1.3 million by 2035.

How Much Does Bitcoin Need to Grow Each Year to Reach That Level?

Bitwise’s model assumes a compound annual growth rate of approximately 28.3%.

Why Is Bitwise Bullish on Bitcoin?

The main factors include institutional adoption, Bitcoin’s limited supply, and the possibility that BTC will continue gaining market share within the store-of-value market.

Does Bitcoin Need to Replace Gold to Reach $1.3 Million?

No. Bitwise’s scenario assumes Bitcoin could capture approximately 25% of the store-of-value market rather than completely replacing gold.

Is Strategy Still Important for Bitcoin?

Yes. Strategy remains a major Bitcoin buyer, but demand is becoming increasingly diversified through ETFs and growing participation from financial institutions.

Is Bitcoin Guaranteed to Reach $1.3 Million by 2035?

No. This is Bitwise’s base-case scenario based on multiple assumptions regarding adoption, supply, and the development of the store-of-value market.

Disclaimer: The information provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, legal, or professional advice. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and, if necessary, consult with a licensed professional before making any decisions.

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